How to find the right problem and create better decision-making processes

In my work with the development of decision-makers and the decision-making processes they engage in when making choices, I have observed several problems that contribute to many of the most important decisions being skewed. I want to tell you about one of them that plays a crucial role when decision-makers get off on the wrong foot right from the start: They make choices based on hastily and poorly formulated problems - or they simply solve the wrong problem.

They make choices based on hastily and poorly formulated problems

- or they simply solve the wrong problem.

For me, the word "problem" is a useful heading for all those events that set our decision-making processes in motion: demanding situations, difficult cases, deviations, challenges or opportunities, to name a few. The important thing is not what they are called, but what attitude you have towards them. I choose to see problems as opportunities to make decisions. They are the gateway to good solutions. Yet, surprisingly, this is where we spend the least time in our decision-making processes. However, if you solve the wrong problem or miss it, it doesn't matter how good you are the rest of the way. You end up with a solution that doesn't work or no solution at all

Decades of research in the field of behavioral economics has concluded that our decision-making processes are stunted right from the start. Our brains are equipped to detect immediate danger. Therefore, we are wired to intuitively believe that quick first impressions are the whole of reality - and at the same time ignore information that is not as immediate. One consequence of this is that we rush towards conclusions without taking a foot off the ground to gain a more robust understanding of both current and future problems. This is a major contributor to the fact that as much as half of the important decisions in organizational life get cut short.

Disheartening news, you might think? The good news, however, is that there are good ways to address the challenges and create better decision-making processes. Here are some concrete tips on how.

Elaborate on your first impressions

In simple terms, we can divide the situations (problems) that present themselves to you here and now into two groups. Those that announce their arrival clearly and strongly, and those that only send you some weak, vague signals. The remedy in both cases is to challenge your first impression. You can do this by asking a few simple questions, such as:

• Am I solving the right problem? What am I missing in this situation?

Here are two questions that push you to make alternative hypotheses about what's going on:

• Is there something else going on here than what I/we think right now?
• What is the worst and best thing that could have happened in this situation?

Not every situation presents itself as a fully described and packaged problem. Some creep up on you on cat's paws and give you vague sensations. Or inner turmoil. My advice is to take your feelings seriously, put your foot down and ask the following questions to check your impression further:

• Is the situation I sense important now?
• Could it be important in the future? Why? When?
• Does the situation affect many people, or could it? Does it cost a lot - humanly, financially or in time, or could it do so?

If you can answer yes to one or more of these questions, it most likely means that you have been given the opportunity to think through an important choice. In that case, try to see the issue through multiple perspectives (finance, competence, organization for example), and also through the eyes of others, before you decide what the problem actually is.

Turn on the high beams for better decision-making

Not all problems and situations arise by themselves. As decision-makers, we need to move into the future and look for problems there too. We need to look ahead. Anticipate problems. One way to turn on the high beams is to concretize expected situations and decisions by asking the following questions:

• What are the most important three to five decisions I/we need to make in the next six months?
• What do I/we expect to happen in the coming days, weeks and months?
• "What-if?" Play "what-if" movies in your head. Look for problems about what MIGHT happen for better or worse in the future (examples: "what happens if interest rates rise and the fridge goes out?", "what happens if our two most important customers disappear?" - use your imagination actively!)

My experience after almost 20 years of working with improving decision-making processes, and the research supports this view, is that decision-makers who actively work towards a more diverse and robust situational understanding at the start of decision-making processes save time overall, get better outcomes for their choices over time - and not least, they get more return on their investment.